The Odds

The Odds in Round 2 of the NBA Playoffs

By Dave Weitzel ⋅ May 6, 2009
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Speaking of the Pistons, I didn’t think a team could give less effort and intensity in the playoffs, and then the Hornets proved me wrong. We had two god-awful efforts, a broken Spurs team, and one of the series that went seven games (Hawks/Heat) never had a game differential of single digits. On top of that, we had the young team everyone picked (Portland) lose in five games to the best all-around team in the league (Houston). While the young team nobody picked besides me (Chicago) took the KG-less, and apparently defending champs–which gives you suspension invulnerability–to a 7th game. I want my most important player smacking people in the face and throwing players into the scorer’s table with no repercussions. The Lakers can’t stop a point guard under the age of 40 due to lack of all things defensive and seem completely uninspired most of the time.

[Writer's Note: I'm writing this on Sunday after the Heat/Hawk game and during the first game of the 2nd round between the Nuggets and Mavs.]

Cavs vs. Hawks

If we learned anything from Round 1, it’s that the Hawks can lose by 20 and show up the next game like it never happened. This is going to be an important attribute, since the Cavs will probably dominate at least two games at home in this series. I like the Hawks to win one or two at home if Joe Johnson shows up and Josh Smith stops shooting jumpers. Who besides Josh Smith continues shooting triples multiple times a game when they make less than 30 percent? Well, I think Marquis Daniels on the Pacers is the only other one. Keep it up guys, I just know you’re about to find your stroke. Vegas likes the Cavs to sweep. I really don’t see that happening. The Hawks are going to fight, they are not like the Pistons. For the odds, Cavs in 5 is your best bet at +200, and I would respect you more if you took Cavs in 6 for +300. Atlanta should have won two games against Cleveland this year if it weren’t for a terrible call down the stretch coupled with four to five poor offensive possessions in a row by the Hawks. Now that we’re in the second round, picking winners seems more important. The Hawks cannot win this series without a LeBron injury, and David Stern would never let that happen. I’m not sure how he controls injuries, but he does. (Side note that will have no real meaning to this series: Joe Johnson played some great D on Wade in round one, on important, possibly game-changing possessions.

Celtics vs. Magic

Dwights Block Party Orlando will win this series. They don’t mess around. They play great defense. Everyone on Boston is going to be tired in Game 1, look for a let down game for the Celtics just like they had against Chicago. I like Orlando in 6 for +300. If you still like Boston even though Pierce acts injured every single game, and Rondo, who will be snapping people’s necks soon if the league doesn’t intervene. However, I can’t fault you too much because Ray Allen is the man. So if that’s the case, go Boston in 7 for +200, they will not win this series in Orlando. You can bet all of my money on that. If you want one more reason, Orlando was not healthy against the Sixers and won without Dwight Howard to close out the series. They had a few ankle twisters hobbling around that just happen to be shooters, which is kind of an important appendage if you want any lift on your shot, especially if you shoot jumpers like Rashard Lewis. Who takes the term “jump shot” literally.

Lakers vs. Rockets

Ron Ron If you don’t know Daryl Morey (Rockets GM), you will soon enough. If you don’t know Aaron Brooks, you will soon enough. If you haven’t heard anyone say that Yao Ming is a good free throw shooter, you will soon enough. If you haven’t heard the Staples Center making crazy amounts of noise in the first three quarters on the championship march, then you know why being a Laker fan is so sad. If I recognize you immediately and you’re not Jack Nicholson, then stop going to the games. Buy your tickets with your seven-figure bank accounts and give them to a real fan who’s going to make some real noise. Anyway, I don’t see the Lakers losing this series, and I don’t see it going seven games. L.A. knows how to win on the road better than any team in the league, and they almost seem more willing to put in the extra effort on the road. There’s too much coasting at home, and I think they lose a home game or get really lucky down the stretch to squeak out a victory. Lakers in 6? I started off really liking the Lakers in 5, and that is what I put money on, but I think I just talked myself out of this series being shorter than 6 games. Bet this at your own risk, the Rockets are so solid.

Nuggets vs. Mavs

I’ve heard many people say that Dallas should be happy that Kidd gets to play against Billups, so he won’t get lit up on the defensive end. That’s a stupid argument because Billups is not a good 1-on-1 defender, so if anything, it benefits Billups because he can jump the passing lanes and run the team the way he wants to without all the effort/chasing/worry that comes with a Tony Parker-type. [I'm writing this next part after I watched the game.] Carmelo basically didn’t play until the 4^th quarter, where he looked like a man on a mission. He didn’t even look happy that his team won because he didn’t really get to be a part of the soul crushing that happened through the first three quarters. The good news for Mavs fans is that they don’t care if they’re down 15 or up 1. They run their sets, they’re confident, and if they start hitting jumpers then watch out. The bad news is that J. Kidd played his best possible series in Round 1. He will not do that again. He won’t play as poorly as he did in Game 1 again either, but the Nuggets are fully armed on both ends of the floor. I don’t see the Mavs keeping up with them in any area. I like the Nuggets in 5 at +300 or 6 at +400 if you’re feeling adventurous.

Interesting plot twist possibility: if Houston finds a way to beat LA, then Houston will beat Denver and Houston will beat Cleveland and then Artest will get a huge contract and kill another franchise. I like that…