Hop on the bandwagon quick before it gets full.  With every Laker loss more and more people believed the team that can’t even schedule its stadium properly could win the West.  People point to the Lakers’ ineptitude against an undermanned Rockets squad and call them vulnerable.  They see a Nugget team that has dropped only two games all playoffs and call them auspicious.

You would be crazy not to like the Nuggets.  They are fun to watch, have a great story with the homecoming of everyone’s favorite Mr. Big Shot Billups and are just enough underdogs America can rally around them.

That doesn’t mean they will win.

Since I’m struggling to explain why people like the Nuggets without giving away my four reasons they can win this series, I’ll just dive in here:

1. Chauncey Billups:  While Chauncey is receiving a disproportionate amount of the praise for the Nuggets turnaround, he will play a vital roll in this series.  He is not a speedster like Aaron Brook, who tortured the Lakers last series, but Billups will cause match-up problems for the Lakers.  Derek Fisher is one of the nicest guys in the league, but he is aging faster than the tub chick in “The Shining.”  Not to mention that he had difficulty guarding Billups in 2004, when he was five seasons younger.  The Lakers have had trouble all season defending the pick-and-roll and Chauncey can exploit that if Pau and Bynum aren’t willing or able to hedge on the screen.  I haven’t even touched on the calming effect that Billups has had on Carmelo and J.R. Smith.  He has taken pressure off them and allowed them to just play.  If Chauncey has a series like he did the last time he faced the Lakers in the playoffs, Denver could find itself in the finals.

   

2. Bench:  The Denver bench has been phenomenal.  J.R. Smith will win a 6th man of the year award if he continues to come off the bench.  He provides the firepower to keep the Nuggets scoring when Anthony and Billups sit.  While his shot selection remain questionable at time he makes enough that you can live with it.  Anthony Carter is a solid back-up point guard who doesn’t make mistakes.  In the playoffs the back-up point guard is one of the most under-appreciated and important positions.  Carter has solidified that role and while Denver might not be as potent as when Billups is on the floor they aren’t terribly handicapped either.  Finally the Birdman, Chris Andersen provides the Nuggets with energy and inside toughness.  The Nuggets will need him to play well against Pau and Bynum, especially if Martin or Nene get in foul trouble early, to have a chance.
3. Pace/scoring:  The Lakers biggest problem all season is one that the Nuggets can exploit:  the ability to consistently play defense.  I’m not even suggesting the Lakers play great or even good defense consistently, just defense at all.  Too many times this season the Lakers stood around and watched the other team take wide-open jumpers.  Luckily for the Pretentious Purple most teams can’t put a streak together long enough to win the game.  The Nuggets can.  They can score in streaks and can keep scoring at will even against good defense.  Against the defense the Lakers showed in the Houston series? Records could be broken.  The Nuggets want to play up and down and play high scoring games.  The Lakers aren’t averse to this and could get caught in a running match.  Fortunately for the Nuggets they run better than the Lakers and if they can push the pace they could dictate how the game is played to their advantage.

   

4. Chemistry/Consistency:  If even two months ago (we won’t even consider the beginning of the season) I were to tell you the Nuggets would be the more cohesive of these two teams you would have probably kicked me in the junk and told me I’m crazy.  After Kobe’s “We’re bipolar” comment there is no need for the ball shot.  Watching the Nuggets you get a sense that for the first time in years they all understand their role and are perfectly comfortable in it.  There are no egos fighting for space or team malcontents.  More importantly they always seem to play with passion and a sense of urgency.  Perhaps this is because they themselves didn’t believe they could make it this far–self-doubt can spur talent to new heights.  Whatever the case, the Nuggets seem poised on every possession and in a hostile Staples environment…ahahah, OK I can’t write “hostile Staples environment” with a straight face.  Let me start over:  On the road that poise can be a huge benefit.

So now you are ready to run out and throw all your money on the Nuggets to win in six right?  Not so fast.  Sure I like the Nuggets.  I will root for them like I root for most underdogs, and I might even bust out my throwback Chauncey Billups jersey and wear it to a Lakers bar.  However, I picked the Lakers before the season and again right before the playoffs to get to the Finals.  I hate backing out on a bet, and to be honest there are four reasons why I still believe the Lakers win this series (I’m taking them in 7).

1. Home Court:  In no other sport is playing at home such an obviously huge advantage.  More than 80 percent of game 7s are won by the home team (Congrats to Orlando for going against the stats on Sunday).  The Lakers displayed an uncanny ability to play amazing at home and atrocious on the road.  Luckily for the Purple and Gold they won’t have to worry about that until the finals (Sorry Orlando).  Not only do the refs go along with the home team’s fans and give them at least three undeserved calls a game, but the young players actually believe they can play better on their home court.  There is no doubt after Game 7 against Houston that Andrew Bynum believes he can play well at home.  Should he play so god-awful on the road? No, he shouldn’t.  But basketball is a mental game, and he’s still young enough for those little things to matter.  The Lakers will need him to play well in order to counterbalance the Nuggets solid front line.  Luckily for the Lakers they should get at least four good games from him, right?
2. Coaching:  Some have questioned the Zen Master’s tactics in the last few rounds.  Yours truly complains constantly about some of the lineups he throws out there (Fisher, Vujacic, Walton, Bynum and Mbenga really? That is the lineup you want on the floor? Really?).  However there are few better than Phil Jackson at adjusting throughout the course of a seven game series.  He is also staring across at George Karl.  Lets just say comparing the two is like comparing Bugs Bunny to Elmer Fudd, you figure out who is who.  Look for Phil to go to Pau early and try and get Nene and Martin in foul trouble early in games.  The Nuggets lose a lot on offense without these two in the lineup, which would allow his bigs to concentrate on clogging the lane and getting out on screen-and-rolls.  Also pay attention to his defensive match-ups.  Who does Kobe guard on big possession? Melo most likely, but if Billups is going off don’t be surprised to see 24 guarding Mr. Big Shot
3. Defense:  I know what you are thinking: “KP this is fairly hypocritical given your point that the Nuggets could exploit the Laker Defense.”  Fair enough.  My point is that when you look at the players on the floor for the Lakers they can match-up well with the Nuggets.  They have the size inside and two wings who can guard either spot in Kobe and Ariza.  The only question spot is at point guard–Lakers fans should be begging to see a little more of Shannon Brown at the one this series; he has the size and is quicker than Fisher at this point.  The main cause for concern is the Lakers mentality.  But if, as many think, the Lakers are the sort of team that needs a challenge to play well, then they’ve got one.  They know the Nuggets can score so will be more inclined to actually defend this series.  When they do that, as they showed Sunday, they can run the other team off the court.
4. Kobe Bryant:  Fact: Kobe Bryant is the best player in this series.  Fact: He plays for the Lakers.  Fact: He always gives his team the best chance to win.  Even when Kobe isn’t scoring he can lock down on defense and distract the other teams attention on offense.  And don’t think the ultra-competitor wasn’t testing Carmelo in Team USA practices this past summer to find weaknesses just in case.  Kobe has many faults; competing is not one of them.  While his leadership skills are questionable at best, he will have his team focused this series.  In the NBA the best player can always win his team a series–see Wade, D.–this is one of those series where, not going against any particularly good defenders Kobe might just go off.

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Kevin Patra lives by the adage: Those who can’t do, write. Currently, he is a graduate student at the University of Southern California studying Online Journalism, after spending four years at the University of Michigan obtaining a bachelors degree from the school of Language, Science & Fun. Patra still owns a teal Grant Hill jersey and is looking for his old FILA basketball shoes.

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