In a postseason full of rematches, Sundays AFC Championship might be the most intriguing. The Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets last met in the seminal Week 16 game that ended with Peyton Manning standing on the sidelines holding a helmet, Dallas Clark looking like he wanted to shoot someone on the bench, the Colts perfect season over and the Jets taking charge of the Wild Card race.

Now we get a chance to see what the Colts really might have done to the Jets defense if they hadn’t put in the Pop-Warner replacements when they were up five points in the third quarter. Who knows, maybe the Jets defense would have stopped Manning enough times to give Mark Sanchez and the defense enough time, but would you have bet on it?

The Jets have proved that as long as you have Darrelle Revis and Shonn Greene you can win playoff football games (also slipping some crack into a Pro Bowl kickers oatmeal before the games so he misses three field goals helps too.) Revis has shut down his many on almost every possession and had another WTF interception last week against San Diego. Shonn Greene looked unstoppable last week, he has just the right amount of size to run linebackers over, and just enough speed to run away from safeties–and now that I don’t have to worry about Thomas Jones f@*%ing up my fantasy team, I say give all the carries to Greene.

When the Colts have the ball:

Did the Jets luck out or what, not having to play a team with a legitimate running game, which means opponents have to throw into their clench-jawed defense–which is like trying to get information out of Jack Bauer through physical punishment, there might be a lot of blood, but you won’t have gotten much for your efforts. Before he went out in that must win game for the Jets, Manning was 14/21 for 192 yards. Not spectacular by his numbers, but he had thrown no picks and was sacked zero times. One of the many special things about the Manning is his ability to avoid sacks. The Jets defense thrives on pressuring the quarterback and if they can’t get Manning off his spot it could be a long day.

Against San Diego the Jets showed some weakness against TE Antonio Gates, look for Manning to find Clark matched up against LB David Harris and try to exploit it as much as possible. The Jets run defense has held thus far in the playoffs and if Indy mediocre running game can’t mount any semblance of an attack it will be to New York’s blitz-happy favor.

When the Jets have the ball:

Shonn Greene! Shonn Green! Shonn Green! We should see a lot of the former Iowa Hawkeye this week against a Colts defense that ranked 24th against the rush this season, giving up 126.5 ypg. In Week 16 the Jets racked up 202 yards on the ground–even though part of that was against reserves–and should be able to gash the Colts defense. New York has shown the ability throughout the playoffs to run against stacked boxes (immature snicker). This will again allow Sanchez to utilize the play action (which he has been good at since his days at USC) and take pressure off him to make big plays.

The Colts have to, have to, have to, keep the Jets in third-and-long and force Sanchez to make plays. If pass rushers Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are able to pin their ears back and put pressure on Sanchez it could force mental mistakes–ala the forced pass into coverage that was intercepted last week by San Diego. While Sanchez has been better in the playoffs at minimizing mistakes and not compounding errors, as the stakes get higher their will be more pressure on him to make big plays.  The Jets need to keep the game within a score in the second half to utilize their ground attack and not put pressure on the rookie quaterback.

Coaches:

The sub-plot of rookie coaches in the AFC Championship is one the network media have played up all week. What I haven’t seen yet is a morphed version of Rex Ryan and Jim Caldwell. With Caldwell’s ability to not blink and Ryan’s flubber-like physique, it would look like the world’s greatest man-fish. You know, a nice fish, big f#@*ing eyes, but a nice f#@!ing fish. The question in big playoff games is which coach will mismanage the clock at the end of the first half or end of the game. Since Peyton Manning is all but running the show in Indy, Jets fans need to hope Ryan doesn’t fowl up an important possession by screwing up the clock management.

Pick:

Last week I went with my gut and the Jets matchup against the Chargers’ run defense. New York again has a favorable matchup against a vulnerable defense and a pass happy offense. The difference, Phillip Rivers sill ain’t no Peyton Manning.

Colts 20 – Jets 13

Related posts:

1. ⊚  AFC Playoff Preview: San Diego Chargers vs. New York Jets
2. ⊚  Wild Card Weekend: Jets-Bengals Preview
3. ⊚  AFC Playoff Preview: Indianapolis Cotls vs. Baltimore Ravens
4. ⊚  Jets Fans, Take Your Meds
5. ⊚  BCS National Championship Preview