“Defense wins championships.” I’m told I should sear that into my brain.

It’s a true statement that being able to stop an opposing offense is a prerequisite to winning.

But then there is this statement from one old and wise coach: “Good offense will always beat good defense.”

Now since this phrase hasn’t been beaten into your brains by banal media commentators let me explain before you tear ligaments jumping in protest. Given all things equal on any certain play, in any sport where the offense controls flow of the game, the offensive team has the advantage and if executes properly will beat the defense (please don’t make me explain things like ‘the offense knows what play it’s running’….). Ergo, if a team is playing good offensively the defense will need to play great. And if the offense is playing great, well, lube up cause you are about to be unwantedly abused.

Why am I bringing this up?

Mainly because emanating from under the hat of the every firefighter-want-to-be New York Jet fan is “Fear us, we have the best defense!”

This fact none can argue against. Rex Ryan’s defense has played superbly all season (thank you fantasy football) and was able to control the game last week in Cincinnati. They have the No. 1 overall defense and the No. 1 pass defense. Put simply, don’t f@%^ with the Jets defense.

However there is that little problem of the Chargers offense being almost unstoppable the last 11 weeks of the season. Phillip Rivers had one of the most quiet Pro Bowl seasons in the history of the NFL. When Old Man Favre, one of the Mannings or Golden Boy Brady do what Rivers did their face is plastered all over ESPN and everyone is drooling. But Rivers plays in San Diego and no one seems to care that he led an offense with the worst yards per carry in the league to 11 consecutive victories. And its not as if the Chargers have worlds greatest defense either.

Vincent Jackson (1167 yds, 9 TDs) has become one of the most lethal deep threat in the NFL and with Antonio Gates (1157 yds, 8 TDs) and Malcom Floyd the Charges have been able to spread teams out throw all over them.

While the Chargers have been anemic running the ball between the 20s, in the redzone they have been effective with LeDanian Tomlinson. Tomlinson had his first sup-1000 rushing season (730 yds) but inside the 20 he was effective, evidenced by his 13 TD rushes.

So the question is, if we know the Jets defense will be a minimum “good” how will the Chargers offense perform? Will the week off have put halted their momentum enough for Ryan’s blitz schemes to get to Rivers? If Defensive SMVP (second most valuable player) Darrelle Revis shuts down Jackson will Gates be able to exploit the middle enough to keep drives alive?

Since I’ve been pimping the Chargers as the best team in the NFL for the last eight weeks my heart says they will be able to pick the Jets apart just enough to win a close game.

But here is what I don’t like: San Diego Chargers rush defense ranks 20th in the NFL.

Aside from defense the best thing about the Jets is their running attack. They are able to pound the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene at a monotonous pace that makes spectators wonder if they are watching Big 10 football of the early 90s.

The key for the Jets, as always is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Jets fans have hollered in recent weeks that Sanchez is back to being great and when he doesn’t turn the ball over they are fine. The problem is he when he does turn it over the Jets look like UCLA.

Last week Sanchez had possibly his best game against the Bengals and was able to pick them apart because of the stacked front designed to stop the rush. They will most likely see the same sorts of fronts, as the Chargers defense is not set up to stop the rush without added help.

So here is my dilemma: do I stick with the team I think has been playing the best football during the regular season or go with my gut that says the Jets will be able to run over the Chargers and control the clock enough to eek out a win?

Considering this postseason I’ve been about as good at picking a winner as the prostitute down the street, I figure whomever I choose will ultimately lose.

Since I loathe all Jets fans except Rich Eisen (yes, name drop, yes) I’m hoping for a reverse jinx on this one…

Jets 20 Chargers 17

Related posts:

1. ⊚  Wild Card Weekend: Jets-Bengals Preview
2. ⊚  NFC Playoff Preview: New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals
3. ⊚  AFC Playoff Preview: Indianapolis Cotls vs. Baltimore Ravens
4. ⊚  NFL Preview: AFC
5. ⊚  The Sports Union’s NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions