Two freshman quarterbacks happen to be starting at the two colleges I have attended. Tate Forcier at Michigan–the school with the better academic curriculum, in a far nicer city, with exponentially better fans–and Matt Barkley at USC–the school with the nicer weather, better football team for the past 20 years, and much hotter females.

In the past I have been advocates for both young players. I have made no secret for my man-bro-crush on Forcier, and even with the abuse I’ve received from the Wolverines  losing six of seven games I still go back to him–you don’t know how he treats me when we are alone. I also said before the season started that Barkley should be the starter, which I still stand by–the Washington game proved that point.

As freshman often do, both players have struggled at times (see Forcier, Iowa, benching; Barkley, Stanford, interception) leading to broadcasters coming to the clairvoyant conclusion that “He looks like a freshman today.” My question is when Tim Tebow throws for a measly 127 yards, 0 TDs and 2 INT against Mississippi State why can’t we say “Well, he looks like a freshman today, Gary.”? Better yet, can’t we just always say “Well he sure sucked today…” and forget what year they enrolled in school?

Anyhow, both teams have struggled recently, the Wolverines more blatantly as they are in jeopardy of not making a bowl game for the second consecutive season, and the Trojans who recently got the idea that giving up points might be something they can write off on their taxes.

To pin the recent struggles on the freshman quarterbacks is naive at best. Anyone who has watch all games of both teams this season (raise your hand if you have… go ahead raise them…..oh, I’m the only one, great, thanks) knows that both squads are extremely inept on the defensive side of the ball. Michigan hasn’t been able to stop anyone all season, and USC’s defense has been scored on more than a town whore–at USC they call them “Song Girls”– three out of the past four weeks.

Here is the oddity: When I sat down to look at their stats I figured it would be pretty obvious that Forcier would have the superior ground numbers and that Barkley would have the better passing numbers.

Part of that equation turned out true: Forcier rushing stats: 112 attempts, 230 yards,  3 TDs; Barkley rushing stats: 33 attempts, -37 yards, 1 TD. This is no surprise as Forcier is in a spread offense and the more mobile of the quarterbacks.

It is in the passing game where the stats got kinky. Given that Barkley is in a pro-system and all the scouts and broadcast announcers seem to drool over his ability to throw the ball, you’d expect his numbers to be better than Forciers’. Turns out they are virtually the same, and actually Forcier’s might be better:

Forcier: 142 for 243, 1824 yards, 58.4 % completion rate, 12 TD, 6 INT, 24 sacks, 132.84 rating.

Barkley 146 for 252, 2035, 57.9 % completion rate, 11 TD, 10 INT, 13 sacks, 132.24 rating.

(Forcier’s stats are through 11 games played, Barkley’s through 9 games played–though Frocier only attempted 2 passes against Deleware State, making that game virtually meaningless in larger picture of the stats compiled).

Both quarterbacks have converted almost the same number of passes, with Barkley having the edge in yards particularly because of the pro-style taking advantage of the big plays and mostly from the fact that he has better receivers who pile up the YAC (yards after catch).

Raise your hand if you would have guessed that Forcier would have had the higher completion percentage, more touchdowns, almost half the interceptions and the higher passer rating. Me neither.

Barkley’s numbers could go up after games against UCLA and Arizona, but if his trend continues they could also get worse. He has thrown at least one interception in each of the past six games (Forcier: two in past five, and has yet to have a multiple-interception game). And while his completion percentage was high against Stanford (21 for 31, 67.7%) the previous two outings it was abysmal, 55.3% against Oregon, 31.8% against Arizona State.

My point in laying all this out is that while Michigan has been an afterthought since losing to Iowa, and USC has been artificially enhanced worse than half the grandmothers in Orange County for the past five weeks, both quarterbacks have tread down a similar path.

We tend to think that Barkley has had the better season because he is on the better team with the better players, but when you break down the stats they have had eerily similar years.

Sure Pac-10 apologists will say Barkley has faced better opposition. Perhaps he has, but he also had one of the best offensive lines in the country coming into the season, which helped him avoid those sacks that Forcier racked up.

Wolverine fans can point to what Tate has done with his legs and claim he is more important to his teams success. True, he might be more important, but he has also shot himself in the foot (Michigan State) and failed to come up big against inferior talent (Purdue, Illinois).

The true proof that these two players have had similar seasons is by looking at what they did against a common foe, Notre Dame (whose defense is as bad as its coach’s Twinkie addiction):

Barkley: 19 for 29, 380 yards, 65.5 % completion rate, 2 TD, 1 INT, 191.44 passer rating (4 rushes for -17 yards)

Forcier: 23 for 33, 240 yards, 69.7% completion rate, 2 TD, 1 INT, 144.73 passer rating (13 rushes, 70 yards, 1 TD)

Interesting that both freshman would have their best games against the Irish. (Before both USC and UofM fans go off about why their guy did better against ND, I realize that USC was on the road and that Forcier led the game winning drive, neither is the point of this exercise.)

There are a myriad of variables that have led to both the troubles and successes of these freshman quarterbacks this season. But the one simple truth is that both young men have extremely bright futures and it will be exciting for both programs to watch their quarterbacks grow and lead their teams past this seasons bitter outcomes.

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Kevin Patra lives by the adage: Those who can’t do or teach, write.  Currently, he is a grad student at the University of Southern California studying Online Journalism, after spending four years at he University of Michigan obtaining a bachelors degree from the school of Language, Science & Fun.  Patra’s father went to Michigan State, so he is allowed to rip them whenever he wants.

Related posts:

1. ⊚  And A Freshman Shall Lead Them
2. ⊚  Déjà vu at Tradition U
3. ⊚  Growing Pains: Sharing the Laughter and Loss
4. ⊚  Michigan Football Construction Delayed Due To Ineptitude
5. ⊚  Much Ado About A Quarterback