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NFL Preview: Week 1-AFC West

Tick Tock, Tick Tock, can you hear it?  Football season is getting closer by the second.  Being your loyal servant and resident football promoter/maniac (depending on how you look at it) it is my duty to provide you all with a weekly bridge to the promise land.  Over the next eight Fridays, I will preview each of the eight NFL divisions.  These previews will include analysis, predictions and even a small taste of Fantasy insight for you rotisserie nuts.  I will begin this week closest to home, with the AFC West.

Once the most consistently competitive and toughest to predict division in all of football, the AFC West is a shell of its former self.  Now it looks more and more like our economically challenged country, complete with haves and have nots, and the middle has all but disappeared.   The “haves” in this case are the San Diego Chargers, who boast possibly the most talented team in football.  Then there is everyone else.  Call it rebuilding, transition, or whatever else you would like, the Broncos, Chiefs, and Raiders can book their vacations for the day after the regular season ends.  Playoffs? Not likely.  I give you the:

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Steelers Patriots Football

I wonder if owner Pat Bowlen could do it all over again, would he have sent Mike Shanahan packing after 14 seasons and two Super Bowls?  While hindsight is always 20- 20, no one could have foreseen the offseason that the Broncos had.  Out went Shanahan and his old ways, in came young gun Josh McDaniels, disciple of the great and powerful “Lord Hoody.”

Things didn’t start out too hot for the brash young coach.  First he attempted to trade for his ex-QB Matt Cassell, while pitching his current QB Jay Cutler with the vigor of the late Billy Mays, to every team he could get on the phone.  When not-so-thick skinned Cutler found out about this, he threw a hissy fit, and the Broncos were forced to trade him to the Bears.  Now, Cutler’s old favorite target, Brandon Marshall, easily the most talented player on the roster, wants out as well.  We will keep you updated on that one.

While the offense has taken some personnel and PR hits this off season, the defense, which was the reason for Denver’s late season collapse, received help via the NFL draft and free agency.  You could argue that the Broncos chose quantity over quality in trying to fix their awful defense, but it still can’t be any worse than last year. The key to the Broncos “transition” under a new coach and a new quarterback in Kyle Orton, will be how well their defense can play.  That being said, this year should be a long one for Broncos fans.  Best case scenario: 7-9.  Worst case: 3-13.  Most likely: 5-11.

Fantasy Focus: Brandon Marshall- Simply put, if he’s there, he’s a threat.  No one in a Broncos uniform is better at finding the end zone, and if he stays, he will rapidly become Orton’s favorite target.

Oakland Raiders

Ah, the Raiders, the storied team that has become a punch line in recent years.  As Raiders fans continue to wait out the the life of Al Davis and his reign as the head of the franchise, don’t expect much of a change until the crazy old man is gone.  The only good news is that Big Al hasn’t fired a coach now in close to a year.  Last year’s interim man, Tom Cable, was retained by the team after he guided it to a 4-8 record to finish the season.  This year, he leads a team that is filled with unproven but gifted weapons, setting up for what could be a boom or bust season.

On offense, the backfield is filled with talent.  Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush make up an explosive running game that the Raiders will lean on as they continue to wait for number one overall pick JaMarcus Russell to develop into an NFL quarterback.  We all know about the rocket arm, but it is his mental preparation and ever-widening ass that has most wondering if Russell will ever be more than a bust.  He better figure it out soon, because waiting in the wings is veteran Jeff Garcia, who just loves taking jobs from young, high paid underachievers.

Perhaps the biggest question mark for Oakland is the offensive line, which needs to come together in order for all of the Raiders young mustangs to thrive.  The unit has been patched together and moved around over the last couple of years.  Now it is time to gel.

Oakland’s defense is serviceable.  They won’t win any games for them, but they won’t lose any either.  As long as the young offense doesn’t put its defense in too many bad situations with turnovers, the Raiders should have the ability to stay in most games.  Best case: 8-8. Worst case: 4-12. Most likely: 6-10.

Fantasy Focus: Darren McFadden- D Mac is just too explosive and versatile to be kept at bay for long.  If Oakland can find creative ways to get the ball in his hands he could have a break out year.

Kansas City Chiefs

PATRIOTS MINI CAMP FOOTBALL

After 20 years under master GM Carl Peterson, the Scott Pioli era has officially begun.  The architect of the Patriots dynasty, Pioli has been chosen to clean up the mess.  Just like that, these ain’t your father’s Kansas City Chiefs.  This year’s Chiefs not only have a brand new General Manager, but head coach Todd Hailey and QB, Matt Cassell join to create the trifecta of team turnover.

Last seen almost winning the Super Bowl, Hailey was brought in to jazz up KC’s offense and add some fire to its belly.  If Cassell can flourish in his system and put up numbers comparable to last year’s in New England (no easy task), the Chiefs could have the makings of a dynamic offense.  Maybe the greatest sign of change in Kansas City is the situation up front.  A long time dominant offensive line has become the biggest weakness on the team.  If that doesn’t change, neither will their offensive production.

The defense is a mix of wiley, but long in the tooth veterans and promising young players.  The big question is, will the veterans be around long enough to wait out the learning curve of the younger players?  For now, the Chiefs hope the leadership and work ethic of guys like Zach Thomas and Mike Vrabel rub off on the rest of the team.  The future looks bright in KC, but it also looks a few years away. Best case: 9-7. Worst case: 5-11. Most likely: 6-10

Fantasy Focus: Dwayne Bowe- With Tony Gonzalez gone, this extremely talented and productive (86 catches for 1,022 yards and 7 TDs in 08) wide out should quickly become Matt Cassell’s big play man.

San Diego Charger

The Chargers are an enigma.  Easily the class of the division and a favorite to win the conference, they never would have made the playoffs last year were it not for an epic implosion by Denver.  Let’s just say this group is a bunch of procrastinators.  They waited until they absolutely had to, to play their best football last season.  Sometimes that meant the second half of a game, sometimes that meant the final five minutes.  In the NFL, that is how a great team goes 8-8.

New season, new attitude.  The best news in San Diego is that this year the training room will be a lot less crowded.  For the first time in a couple of seasons the Bolts are heading into camp as a healthy unit.  As a result, they could be dangerous.  Philip Rivers has become an elite quarterback in this league, and with the supporting cast around him and Norv Turner’s ability to get everyone involved, San Diego’s offense should put up big numbers.  Not to mention the fact that LT is hell bent on proving all of his doubters wrong and showing just how much life is left in those legs of his.

On defense, it is all about getting to the opposing quarterback.  When the Chargers can consistently put pressure on the signal caller, this is one of the best defenses in football.  When they can’t, they are one of the worst.  The D struggled mightily last year without sack master and attention whore Shawn Merriman.  Regardless of how tired his on field antics get, having Merriman coming off the edge is what fuels this defense.  He is back and if he is fully healthy it could be “lights out” for the rest of the AFC.

It is now or never for the procrastinating Chargers, and it looks like this could finally their year. Best case: 13-3. Worst case: 8-8. Most likely: 12-4

Fantasy Focus: Philip Rivers- Turner and staff are striving for more balance in the offense this year, which relied heavily on River’s arm last season. However, Flip is still a great bet to put up 4,000 yards and 30 TDs.

Next week: The AFC South

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mattMatt Venuto was forced into the writing business when those close to him held an intervention and demanded that he find an outlet for his endless opinions and ranting, because, frankly, they were tired of listening to him. Matt is a USC alumnus and majored in psychology in an attempt to figure out why everyone around him was nuts.  He failed in his endeavor.  Like Hootie and the Blowfish, the Dolphins make him cry and he doesn’t understand why more people don’t find Kevin Garnett extremely annoying.  Calm down Kevin, please.

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