I’ll be honest, I won’t be picking the Baltimore Ravens to win any playoff games this season (although with my superb selections I can only assume the wonderful fans in Baltimore are happy…but I’m not the only one to shit the bank with his predictions). Even if the Ravens prove me wrong again this week and whoop the rested Colts, there is zero chance I take them against either AFC opponent.

Now t hat you know who my pick for this week–which means you can stop reading and confidently put your money on Baltimore–I guess I should explain why.

Why Indianapolis? Didn’t the Ravens just dismantle a team with a similarly good offense-average defense ration, heavily reliant on the pass with a Hall of Fame quarterback on the road? True, they did embarrass Golden Boy Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a game that was about as watchable as a porn starring two 300 pound lesbians–I mean you might watch it, but you’ll never get excited about it. True they have a defense that when it plays to its potential is in the top 3 in the league. And true, the Ravens should be able to utilize former Rutgers running back Ray Rice’s ability run ramped against the Colts 24th ranked rush defense.

With all those being facts why would I take a team that hasn’t played a meaningful game in over a month? Sure the Colts are rested, but can you ever be too rested? Could they be rusty after their starters sat out the final game and a half of the season? It is not like they started their season off hot, beating the Jaguars 14-12, after playing those meaningful preseason games–by now we all know that no one takes the third game of the preseason like its bullshit. 

Here is what I do know: Bet against Peyton Manning when he is pissed off at your own risk.

The entire Colts team, and the fans, were none to pleased with the management and coaching staff for giving up a perfect season. And there is no bigger motivating factor in football then an F-U to everyone who has said the past three weeks that the Colts doomed themselves by sitting. We’ve heard monotonously about how the only time the Colts won the Super Bowl was when they played the entire season. If you don’t think Manning and the Colts are stewing over it, please, bash your head against a stained glass window.

In their Week 11 meeting in Baltimore, Manning threw for 299 yards, one TD and two INTs in the Colts 17-15 victory. Given that he hasn’t played a game in a month I’m guessing he has watched that game and those two picks about 45,000 times.

The Ravens rush defense is stout, giving up just 93 ypg, and I wouldn’t call the Colts run game–even with a healthy Joseph Addai–impressive, so look for Manning to air it out 35-40 times at least against the Ravens secondary. Unless Ed Reed can keep Manning off balance I think the recently named MVP can pick apart Baltimore cornerbacks Chris Carr and Dominique Foxworth.

Then there is the Ravens offense against the Colts defense.  The Colts defense has been even less impressive than the Patriots were throughout the season, but they haven’t killed their team by giving up a lot of big plays–like an 83 yard TD run on the first play from scrimmage. They also have a huge advantage on the edges with Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney. The time off should have helped both the ends who were banged up throughout the season. If the putrid Colts run defense can force third and longs–I’m just going to assume they will stack the box on first and second down–and allow Freeney and Mathis to pin their ears back, they could frustrated second-year quarterback Joe Flacco.

Which brings me to my final point: Can we trust Flacco yet to make the big play? He showed last season he was a capable game manager. Then this season he looked as though he was coming out of his shell and leading a solid passing attack. In the first round he didn’t have to do anything against the Patriots defense except not fumble the hand-off. Given that the Colts probably won’t play so poorly offensively as New England, Flacco will be forced to make some plays late in the game, which isn’t something he’s shown a knack for thus far in his career.

Pick: Colts 28-Ravens 20

Related posts:

1. ⊚  Wild Card Weekend: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravents
2. ⊚  Wild Card Weekend: Jets-Bengals Preview
3. ⊚  NFL Preview: AFC
4. ⊚  The Sports Union’s NFL Divisional Playoff Predictions
5. ⊚  NFL Preview-Week 3 AFC North