We transition this week to the division that is perennially the strongest, the AFC South.  The South has sent 13 teams to the playoffs since its inception in 2002.  However, only Indianapolis and Tennessee have won the division.  The Colts have taken the crown five times, while the Titans have bookend titles in 2002 and last year.  The South is highly competitive, and always plays a big factor in who represents the AFC in the Super Bowl.  The only question heading into this season is which team from this heavyweight division will join the Colts in the playoffs, as it is always Indy and someone else at the top.

Houston Texans

The Texans and the South division broke into the NFL together.  Unfortunately for Houston football fans, they are the only team in the AFC South that has not reached the post season in the division’s seven-year history. Of course it might help if they have a winning season first. The other part of the equation is playing in the same division as three of the best franchises in the NFL.

Houston believes this is the year they finally get over the hump.  The Texans have flirted with a winning record in each of the past two seasons, going 8-8 in both campaigns.  If they are going to move forward they must be more consistent.  In ’08 the Texans started the season 0-4, then rattled off three impressive wins, followed by three ugly losses, then finished the season by winning five of their last six.  That roller coaster ride is enough to make you nauseous.

Houston features a high-powered offensive attack that looks like a well-oiled machine some Sundays and a blooper reel on others.  The passing attack should flourish again this year, thanks to Andre Johnson, who has quickly become a top-tier receiver. Combined with the old Denver Bronco illegal blocking…err…zone running scheme should make for a highly productive offense.  If they can hold on to the football, the Texans should be able to put up a lot of points.

The defense is another story all together.  Beyond the continued dominance of “Super Mario” Williams, Houston was pathetic on this side of the ball, ranking 22^nd in yards allowed per game last year.  The Texans are hoping that off season additions, like first round draft pick Brian Cushing (USC), will help turn the defense around and finally get Houston to the playoffs.

Best case scenario: 10-6.  Worst case: 6-10.  Most likely: 8-8

Fantasy Focus: Andre Johnson- The Houston wide out is a legit superstar.  AJ has developed great chemistry with QB Matt Schaub, and I see no reason why he cannot repeat the 115-catch season that he had a year ago.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Just when we thought they had finally arrived, the team with the split personality baffled us again by completely falling apart in ’08.  After an epic playoff bout with New England in 07, when the Jags fell inches short of upsetting the undefeated Pats, Jacksonville went into last season as a trendy pick to make a run to the Super Bowl. Then they went out and won a whopping five games.  Having eaten their share of humble pie this offseason, the Jaguars are due for another big year that will inevitably set up their next inconceivable collapse.

2008 was a rough year for QB David Garrard.  Beaten up and embarrassed the entire season, it became clear that the Jags signal caller would need some serious help on the offensive line and in the skill weapons if he was to return to all-pro form.  Jacksonville took two giant steps in the right direction by drafting Virginia’s mammoth tackle Eugene Monroe with the 8^th pick in the draft, and signing pro bowl receiver Torry Holt.   At 33, if Holt can still be a dangerous number one receiver, the Jaguars should be able to add an effective passing game to an already dynamic rushing attack.

They say that the game of football is won and lost in the trenches.  That isn’t good news for the Jaguars defense.  Jacksonville’s defensive line has the same problem as its offensive line: once dominant, now aging players and disappointing young ones.  Last year’s draft picks, DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves, need to make large improvements for this unit to have a chance this season.

Unlike last summer, things don’t look rosy for the Jags.  That being said, this crazy team could surprise everyone and win the division.

Best case: 11-5. Worst case: 6-10. Most Likely 9-7

Fantasy Focus: Maurice Jones Drew- The small stature, big mouthed tailback proclaimed himself the best in the NFL, despite never having a thousand yard season.  With Fred Taylor in New England, this season will be put up or shut up time.

Tennessee Titans

I’m not sure what was more shocking, the Titans unlikely on field success last season with gray beard Kerry Collins at the controls, or its strange and tragic developments off the field.  As usual in the NFL, the drama focused around Tennessee’s quarterbacks, past, present, and future.  First, Vince Young came out of a game early in the year and then refused to go back in.  This led to Collins taking over as starter and Young reportedly behaving depressed and suicidal.  Then VY began this off season by vowing to keep his mouth shut and battle for the starting job.  Less than a month later he re-opened his mouth and demanded to be traded if he was not handed the starting job.  Of course, all of this became back page news when the story broke of Steve McNair’s shocking and senseless murder.

So where do the Titans go from here?  That depends on whether or not Jeff Fisher can pull his team together, get their heads on straight, and focus on defending their AFC South crown.  That will be no easy feat.  In addition to their quarterback controversy and off field distractions, the Titans will have to deal with a first place schedule and the loss of perhaps their best player, Albert Haynesworth.

On offense, Tennessee will again lean on a dominant and deep running game led by “Thunder and Lightning,” LenDale White and Chris Johnson.  If Collins can be the game manager that he was last year and keep the amount of mistakes to a minimum, the Titans will again have a productive, if not exciting offense.

While replacing defensive giant Haynesworth will be difficult, Tennessee should be just fine on defense.  The Titans are talented and deep at almost every position. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and OLB Keith Bullock lead a very stingy unit that will keep them in every game.

It seems there is nowhere to go but down for Tennessee after rattling off 13 wins a year ago.  With a lot to overcome, it may be too much to expect the Titans to repeat as division champs, but they should reach the post season.

Best case: 11-5. Worst case: 7-9.  Most likely: 10-6.

Fantasy Focus: Running back by committee- Both White and Johnson will share time in the backfield, frustrating their fantasy owners.  However, both should be very productive.  Either could be plugged into any line-up every week.

Indianapolis Colts

Saving the best for last, Indianapolis is one of the trinity of AFC powerhouses-along with Pittsburgh and New England.  The Colts have reached the playoffs in seven straight seasons, and despite losing Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy, they don’t appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.  As long as #18 is under center, Indianapolis will continue to be a threat to win it all.

Entering his 12^th season, Peyton Manning is again in control of a high-powered and extremely dangerous offense.  The passing game is never a question.  Even losing Marvin Harrison, the other half of one of the greatest pitch and catch combinations in history, shouldn’t slow down Manning and friends.  It is the ground game that is of some concern for new head coach, Jim Caldwell.  After looking like a future star a few years ago, Joseph Addai regressed last season.  He needs to rebound this year, along with the rest of his backfield mates, to provide Indy with a more balanced attack, and take a share of the workload off of Manning’s right arm.

The Colts defense is built on speed.  Undersized at almost every position, Indianapolis relies on a tenacious pass rush and a scheme that puts their linebackers and defensive backs in the right position to make plays.  This makes the Colts solid against the pass, but very pedestrian against the run.  Lucky for them, they are usually ahead.

Despite losing their head coach and both coordinators the Colts have just as good a chance as anyone else in the AFC to play their last game in February.

Best case: 12-4. Worst case: 9-7. Most Likely 11-5

Fantasy Focus: Joseph Addai- A sure fire first round pick in every fantasy draft last year, Addai will most likely be avoided like the plague by most of your league this year. Due to his struggles in ’08, and the drafting of Donald Brown in the first round, Addai should slip into the later rounds.  If you believe he has the motivation necessary to rebound, he could be a nice value pick in an explosive offense.

Next Week: AFC North

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Matt Venuto was forced into the writing business when those close to him held an intervention and demanded that he find an outlet for his endless opinions and ranting, because, frankly, they were tired of listening to him. Matt is a USC alumnus and majored in psychology in an attempt to figure out why everyone around him was nuts.  He failed in his endeavor.  Like Hootie and the Blowfish, the Dolphins make him cry and he doesn’t understand why more people don’t find Kevin Garnett extremely annoying.  Calm down Kevin, please.

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