This week we move north to the division of contenders and pretenders, boasts the Super Bowl champions and two conference finalists. Then again it also has the Bungals and the Browns. Well, even supermodels get zits. Pittsburgh has proven that it is the “alpha wolf” of the division, despite yearly predictions of being overthrown by younger, flashier division rivals (see Cleveland 2008, and Cincinnati 2006). This season it is Baltimore’s turn to take their best swing at the champs. Let’s hope they use a different blueprint for success than division mates, who fell flat on their faces after hype filled off seasons.
Cleveland Browns
This time last year the Browns were the trendy pick to win the AFC North and make a deep playoff run. Now…not so much. After winning 10 games in ’07 and giving Cleveland fans hope they hadn’t felt since John Elway ripped their hearts out 20 years ago, the Browns fell off the wagon fast. They plummeted to four wins in ’08. In the aftermath, head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Phil Savage received their walking papers, replaced by Eric Mangini and George Kokinis.
Before the ink was dry on his pink slip from the New York Jets, Mangini was on his way to Cleveland, given a familiar task to right the ship of an ailing franchise. Cleveland fans should be a bit more patient with “The Mangenius”, who was dumped by New York after just three seasons. However, if he is unsuccessful this time around, the next job will not come so easily…..if at all.
The Browns are not short on storylines for the 2009 season. Along with the fresh brain trust, Cleveland also has a brash new defensive coordinator, Rob Ryan, who came over from the Oakland to give the defense much needed attitude.
Oh and there is that little matter of a quarterback controversy that has been going on for two years now.
For the first time in his brief career, Brady Quinn appears to have the inside track to begin the season as the Browns starter. Quinn is familiar with Mangini’s offense, having played under Charlie Weiss at Notre Dame, and he has close to identical attributes (smart, efficient, albeit with less than stellar arm strength) as former Mangini QB Chad Pennington. If Quinn can’t get it done now, it may never happen.
The Browns should be better in 2009, but that isn’t saying much. With so many questions on both sides of the ball, Cleveland should look more like the floundering ’08 team than the division contending 07′ version.
Best case: 9-7. Worst case: 4-12. Most likely: 6-10.
Fantasy Focus: Braylon Edwards– After a monster ’07 campaign that included 16 TDs, Edwards had a forgettable season last year, plagued by dropped passes and lack of focus. He should drop in your draft based on his disappointing numbers last season. If he can rebound to anywhere near his ’07 production, he could be a steal.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals of the last five years are a story of disappointing potential. In 2005 Cincinnati was primed for a run to the Super Bowl. Fresh off an 8-8 season, the much maligned Bengals were showing signs that they had quickly put together an exciting young team, led by gunslinger Carson Palmer and a high flying passing attack. They raced to an 11-5 record, a division title, and a home playoff game against the hated Steelers. On the second play from scrimmage Palmer connected with Chris Henry for a 66 yard strike down the sideline and the Bengals were off and running. Only problem, Palmer was lying in the backfield, writhing in pain, with a blown out left knee. Game over….season over. The Steelers would go on to win the Super Bowl, while the Bengals were left wondering what could have been.
Since coming so close to the mountain top, the Bengals have fallen rapidly, dropping to eight wins in ’06, seven in ’07, and a mere four in ’08. For coach Marvin Lewis, who by some miracle hasn’t been fired, this should be his last chance. In order for him to turn this thing around, Lewis will have to keep his team healthy on the field, and out of trouble off it. The past three seasons, Cincinnati has been plagued by injuries, legal issues, and the traveling circus that is Chad Ocho Cinco. Oh and Chad, “Ocho Cinco” is not Spanish for eighty five. Why don’t you change your name to “Quatro”, as in the number of times you found the end zone last year.
The good news for the Bengals is that Carson Palmer is back, healthy and ready to return to form as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Beyond him, the offense is full of question marks, the biggest being the offensive line, which has gone from a strength to a major weakness. In addition, Palmer will be without favorite target T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who bolted in free agency. With a suspect running game, it will be up to Palmer and Ocho Cinco to re kindle their aerial chemistry and carry the offense. The defense, riddled with injury last year, performed surprisingly well, finishing 12th in yards allowed. With the unit at full strength, they should be even more stingy in ’09.
Best case: 9-7. Worst case: 5-11. Most likely: 7-9
Fantasy Focus: Carson Palmer– The 29 year old QB will be leaned on heavily to produce for Cincy’s offense. With a suspect running game, the Bengals should go to the air quite a bit. Look for Palmer to return to form this season.
Baltimore Ravens
There were a lot of questions about this football team heading into the 2008 season. A new regime was in place, headed by rookie coach John Harbaugh, and rookie quarterback Joe Flacco was given the controls to the much maligned offense. After a five win season in ’07, the Ravens were being talked about as a team in the dreaded “rebuilding” stage. With a dominant defense beginning to get a bit long in the tooth, the biggest questions were how long would it take for the offense to perform and how much Ray Lewis and the gang had left in the tank?
As it turned out, it didn’t take very long at all. Harbaugh quickly earned the respect of the mostly veteran squad, and Flacco and the young offense were efficient and consistent. The defense played to the form that we have come to expect from Baltimore: nasty, arrogant and stingy. The end result was an 11 win season, two road playoff victories and a trip to the AFC Championship game.
This season, expectations are through the roof. The Ravens are this year’s trendy pick to steal the division crown from the Steelers and make a run to Miami for the ultimate prize. Only, they won’t be able to sneak up on anyone this time around.
Maintaining the stability the offense achieved last season and building on the early success of young Flacco will be key to the Ravens taking the next step. Baltimore’s offensive philosophy is one that plays to the teams defensive strength. Meat and potatoes, bread and butter, whatever you want to call it, the Ravens game plan is simple: pound the ball, control the clock, win the field position battle, and most importantly, don’t turn the ball over. They were a well oiled machine in ’08. If they can do it again, Baltimore will be right back in the thick of the division race.
Despite losing longtime coordinator, Rex Ryan, and inside backer, Bart Scott, the Ravens D should be just fine. This is Lewis and Ed Reed’s unit, and anyone not playing up to their level of intensity has to answer to the preacher and his hard hitting side kick. The new pieces should fit nicely into the puzzle and the Ravens will continue to wreak havoc on opposing offenses.
Best case: 11-5. Worst case: 7-9. Most likely: 9-7
Fantasy Focus: Running Back by committee–a hated term for fantasy owners, the Ravens feature a stable of backs that all see plenty of playing time. The good news is, they like to run a lot. The bad news is, you never know who will get the carries. Take one and hope to get lucky, or avoid the whole bunch and save yourself the stress.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Is there a more underrated franchise in professional sports? Year in and year out the Steelers go about their business. And their business is winning football games. And yet, every year no one wants to talk about them. They don’t date super models or music divas. They don’t pose shirtless in magazines. They don’t have their own reality tv show. They just show up every Sunday and hit their opponent in the mouth. Oh yeah, and they win Super Bowls.
Flying under the radar will not be possible this year, as success and notoriety has finally caught up to the men of steel. Defending a championship is hard enough, but it just got a lot more difficult. The recent allegations of sexual assault by Big Ben, real or fabricated, will follow Pittsburgh throughout training camp and into the regular season. This is new territory for a squeaky clean team that is not used to being covered by TMZ. How they handle to scrutiny will determine whether or not they can repeat.
The champs are stacked on both sides of the ball. The offense is a yardage eating monster that can run the ball down your throat and explode for big gains through the air. With two rings in his brief career, Roethlisberger has become one of the best and most consistent QBs in the game. His receiving corp is top notch, and he has a slew of running backs behind him to keep defenses honest. With a healthy Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, the offense should be even better in ’09.
No offense to the Baltimore Ravens, but they no longer have the most feared defense in the AFC North. When you play the Steelers, you feel it the next day. Pittsburgh punishes teams with defensive puppet master Dick LeBeau’s zone blitz scheme, always attacking from a different angle. They play hard and fast and rarely get caught out of position. They shut down the run. They shut down the pass. The Steelers just flat out shut you down.
Best case: 13-3. Worst case: 9-7. Most likely: 11-5
Fantasy Focus: Santonio Holmes– The Super Bowl MVP has gone from a big play threat to Big Ben’s go to guy. He will go high in your draft thanks to his performance in February, so you may have to grab him early. That being said, the sky is the limit andhe isn’t the greatest value pick.
Next week: The glamour division, AFC East…lock up your daughters.
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Matt Venuto was forced into the writing business when those close to him held an intervention and demanded that he find an outlet for his endless opinions and ranting, because, frankly, they were tired of listening to him. Matt is a USC alumnus and majored in psychology in an attempt to figure out why everyone around him was nuts. He failed in his endeavor. Like Hootie and the Blowfish, the Dolphins make him cry and he doesn’t understand why more people don’t find Kevin Garnett extremely annoying. Calm down Kevin, please.
Related posts:
- ⊚ NFL Preview: Week 1-AFC West
- ⊚ NFL Preview-Week 2 AFC South
- ⊚ Betting the NFL Championship Games
- ⊚ Countdown to Super Bowl XLIII: Part 2 (Defense)
- ⊚ 50 reasons the Detroit Lions shouldn’t draft a quarterback at #1
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