The New England Patriots bailed out the Indianapolis Colts. After the Colts benched all their starters, costing it a chance at a perfect regular season record, Indy took a lot of heat. The organization stood by its decision claiming it didn’t want to see any of its vital cogs injured before the playoffs. Many scoffed at this claim–Peyton Manning has never been injured! Then Wes Welker tore his ACL and MCL in Week 17.
Welker caught a league-high 123 passes this season and has been Tom Brady’s favorite receiver the past three seasons–346 catches as a Patriot. Will Welker’s absence play a roll in this game? Yes. Will it change the outcome in the first round? No.
New England is 8-0 at home this season while the Baltimore Ravens are 3-5 on the road with two of those road wins against Cleveland and Oakland (the other was against San Diego in Week 2, before the Chargers became the best team in football) and they already lost at New England in Week 4.
On offense look for Brady to try and get Welker’s replacement, Julian Edleman, early to calm the rookie down. Edleman has been recovering from an injury the past few weeks, but historically the Patriots have been able to find peripheral receivers to overachieve in big moments. This could be another opportunity.
With the Ravens rolling coverage to Randy Moss–assuming his missing practice Friday is as meaningless as the Patriots are trying to make the press believe–Edleman will have plenty of opportunities.
Like in almost every big game for the Patriots Kevin Faulk will play a big role for New England. The Baltimore defense is susceptible to the dump off pass, and Brady is comfortable with the 11-year veteran. Don’t be surprised if Faulk has another big game for the Pats.
The problems for New England on the defensive side of the ball have been well documented all season. No doubt this is a different defense than we are used to seeing from the Patriots. But while the Ravens’ quarterback Joe Flacco has improved this season his only weapon at receiver is the Derrick Mason. When the Patriots can key on one facet of the offense and shut it down they have been successful this season.
Baltimore has to control the offensive line and give former Rutgers running back Ray Rice room to run for the Ravens to remain in the game. OK I got a little carried away with the Rich Eisen alliterative Ray Rice game, but it is true, the Ravens need a monster game form their stout back. If they can control the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines and give their aging defense a chance to catch their breath, the Ravens have a chance to win in Foxborough.
Unfortunately I don’t see the Ravens passing game being able to open up the middle for Rice, and the Patriots will be able to stack the middle and shut down the rush attack.
Brady will be fine without Welker, Moss will make enough big plays and Faulk will score at least one TD as the Patriots move to 9-0 at home this season.
Pick: Patriots 27 Ravens 23
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- ⊚ Recap of the Wild Card Round for Betting Purposes
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