Am I the Crazy One Now?

First things first, the line opened at Steelers -6.5, and then QUICKLY jumped to  -7 when everyone in their right mind realized what was being offered. Since then, the spread has not changed at all. The over/under has stayed at 46.5. A recent poll on espn.com has 50% of the country picking the Cardinals to win, TO WIN. I’ve spent every second since the match up was set trying to talk myself into this game being competitive, and I’ve come to the conclusion that it can’t be. I think Willie Parker breaks the record for most rushing yards in a Super Bowl. Much like the Giants-Eagles game, the score may make the game seem closer at certain points than it really is, which will keep people interested because they will continue to expect this Cardinal offense to show some brilliance. There will be some brilliance, but teams don’t put together more than one brilliant drive against the Steelers defense. Teams don’t go 80 yards on 12 plays and eat up 7 minutes of the clock against this defense. More importantly, in all 3 Arizona wins, they had an explosive first half and then did absolutely nothing in the second half. That will not fly against a great team. Did you know the Steelers had (arguably as always) the hardest schedule in the NFL this year? They went 12-4 and had Willie Parker 100% healthy in 4 of those games. Okay, that’s enough for the Steelers because…..

The interesting team that everyone wants to root for is the Cardinals. Go Larry Fitzgerald and Go Kurt Warner! I would love for them to win a title. I think Warner deserves to be in the Hall of Fame, and if he chokes like he did last time he was here, then he will probably not get that opportunity. Fitzgerald makes plays the way I do in my head if I were 80 pounds bigger, ripped, could jump as high as I need to depending on where the ball is, and had the most sure hands we’ve seen this season. Ken Whisenhunt is obviously a great coach, and it bodes well that he used to practice his offense as the coordinator against this Steelers defense. He will have his team prepared for every single thing Pitt is going to throw at them. They’re not afraid to take shots. They play football the way we want people to play football when we watch it on TV. They go for it on 4^th down when it makes sense. And if you’re only counting their playoff resume, they can shift momentum any time they want.

Random question: Did anyone watch the Super Bowl last year where an unstoppable offense was stopped by a team who had a great pass rush? The Patriots were favored by double digits in that game if I remember correctly. This was after they played a very close and ultra competitive game in week 17 and still nobody was picking the Giants to WIN that game. But then again, crazy things have been known to happen in big games (see David Tyree’s helmet catch and then see it again from a different angle and you’re still not sure how it happened but it did….channel that magic Arizona, your Suns are going nowhere, this is really your only hope.)

I’m fully prepared to eat every one of these words if I’m wrong about any of this, but without further explanation, here are the bets that make the most sense to me. Forget betting the spread and over/under. Let’s talk MARGIN OF VICTORY ODDS. The payouts are super inflated because the final score differential has to be 1-3, 4-7, 8-11, 12-15, and so on down the line. The lowest payout is Steelers to win by 4-7 which is still +400. If you like Zona to get rocked and want to play it safe, then I would suggest putting a set amount on Pitt winning by 8-11, 12-15, and 16-19 and if any of those happen then you will be making decent profit. Don’t be a slave to the -110 spread picks and don’t waste your time trying to figure out how you feel about 46.5. Spread your money around on some MVP, margin of victory, and prop bets AND ENJOY SUPER SUNDAY!

Prediction: Willie Parker runs all over the field and no matter how hard the media tries, they can’t deny him the MVP, but they will still show Big Ben more than Willie. It won’t be Warner’s fault, but it will look like it. Edgerrin who? Bruce Springsteen should do the Super Bowl every year or really just every halftime show for anything. Steelers 31 – Cardinals 17 (garbage time score screws me out of the big money payout)

Related posts:

1. ⊚  Countdown to Super Bowl XLIII: Part 2 (Defense)
2. ⊚  Countdown to Super Bowl XLIII: Part 4 (The Picks)
3. ⊚  Coutdown to Super Bowl XLIII: Part 3 (Offense)
4. ⊚  Bring in the Props – Prop Bets and the Super Bowl
5. ⊚  Betting the NFL Championship Games