People seem to be upset that Garnett is most likely out for the playoffs because it’s pretty clear that Kobe and LeBron are going to clash in the finals. This doesn’t mean anything for gamblers because you aren’t going to bet on the Cavs or Lakers anyway. The Cavs are -4,000 to win their series against the Pistons which means you would have to bet $4,000 to win $100. Nobody wants to do that. So let’s see if we can find some exact series prices that are worth it.

An exact series price is choosing who will win the series AND in how many games. All of the payouts are going to be in the + range which means if you’re betting $100, your profit will be over $100 no matter what. That’s what makes the playoffs so interesting from a betting perspective; you can look at the big picture and not worry about spreads and over/unders. As always, I use oddsmaker.com for my gambling and information.

(Quick explanation of why you want to bet exact series – we’ll use the Rockets-Blazers series as our example. The Rockets are +120 and the Blazers are -150 to win the series. Neither of those odds are worth betting, but if you can nail how many games it will take a team to win the series, then the payout will be around +400 or better which means a $100 bet will win you $500.)

THE EASTERN CONFERENCE

(8)Detroit Pistons – (1)Cleveland Cavaliers

The Pistons have been in the playoffs too many times to get swept. I know you love the Cavs and LeBron is a linebacker dribbling a basketball , whichfor some reason that gets the country all excited about what his ceiling could be. The Cavs won the season series 3-1 in low scoring affairs. That is what the Pistons want, if the Cavs score 90 points, then they will win the game, but if the Pistons can slow down the pace enough to keep it close in the final minutes then they will steal a few games. I’m going out on a limb in saying this series goes 6 games, but the payout is worth it. Cavs winning in 6 is +350 which means a $100 bet would get you $450. Cavs in 5 is +150 and in 4 is +125. Those are both solid bets as well.

(7)Chicago Bulls – (2)Boston Celtics

This is easily my favorite series from a betting standpoint. The Celtics were already vulnerable with KG. I know they were vying for best record in the league, but their bench is so bad that people don’t realize how bad the Lakers and Cavs benches are. The Bulls will win their home games. The Celtics can’t score enough points to keep up in this one. The Bulls are +400 to win the series. That number is so ridiculous that I’m not even sure what I can compare it to. The 7 seed in the West is only +185, and they are the team dealing with injuries. If you love an underdog pick, then you need to love the bulls.

(6)Philadelphia 76ers – (3)Orlando Magic

Did you throw up a little in your mouth when you read this match-up? I definitely did. These teams are not playing well going into the playoffs. The Magic are dealing with Lewis and Hedo injuries. The 76ers win games with voodoo,  which is the only thing that explains it. If any other team in the East, including 2 teams that didn’t make the playoffs, were playing the Magic, then I would be typing in all caps to bet against Orlando. However, since it’s Philly, the most uninspired, offensively challenged, and poorly coached team (though that doesn’t really do it justice), the Magic will win this series behind the superior coaching of Luigi. But it’s still not worth betting.

(5)Miami Heat – (4)Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks won the season series 3-1. The Hawks have the better team. The Hawks have more experience. The Heat have Dwyane Wade. I think that makes them almost even. These games will be low scoring and close. Vegas likes the Hawks to win in 6 games at +350. If you think Wade isn’t losing in the first round, then you should bet The Wades in 6 or 7 at +450 (most likely 7). I like the Hawks to win the series in 5 if the refs don’t step in and save Miami. Who am I kidding? The refs are definitely going to play a bigger role in this series than any other in round 1.

THE WESTERN CONFERENCE

(8)Utah Jazz – (1)LA Lakers

The Lakers handled the Jazz in high scoring games in last year’s playoffs. I have no idea what to expect from the chemistry-less Jazz. I know the Lakers bench needs to step-up, but it’s not vital not in the 1^st round. Lakers win in 4 or 5 at +150. Interesting side note: The Lakers are +100 to win the title, and the Cavs are +150. I would definitely jump on either one of those before the rest of the world puts money on those teams and messes with your + payout.

(7)New Orleans Hornets – (2)Denver Nuggets

Are we sure that Denver was #2 in the West? Can I get a recount? If Carmelo comes in with intensity that we haven’t seen from before, then they win this series. J.R. Smith will explode in at least one game putting him on the national map. People will make a big deal about Billups bringing a team full of bad attitude children with ADD together to win games and they would be correct in doing so. On the other side, we have Chris Paul. He’s going to end up the best point guard of all time not named Magic. I have no idea how this series will go. They split the season series 2-2. They both won one road game. I would NEVER take Denver against the spread, but they know how to win games. This will be the best series in round 1 that I will forget before it starts.

(6)Dallas Mavericks – (3)San Antonio Spurs

These teams make me sad. I want the Spurs of old to shock the Lakers. I want the Mavericks to succeed in the playoffs. I want Jason Kidd’s name to be remembered the way it should be from when he was throwing up triple doubles the way Big O did. I want Dirk and Duncan to not be on the decline. I want Tony Parker to get recognition for how amazing he was this season to keep the Spurs relevant without Ginobili and relying on that one black guy with the curly hair that nobody would know about if he weren’t on the starting 3 of the Spurs. I love Jason Terry though. I hope he gets out of Dallas someday soon. I can’t in good conscience put money on this series, but I will enjoy watching the games anyway.

(5)Houston Rockets – (4)Portland Trail Blazers

The series every Laker fan is dreading. Is Portland their kryptonite? No, the Lakers bench is their kryptonite, but that has nothing to do with this series. Houston won the season series 2-1, but neither team won on the road. All three games were strangely high scoring for these two teams which means the total points eclipsed the 180s. I think J. David nailed this one on the head. Artest beats up Roy. Yao underachieves. This series lasts longer than it should. The Rockets are a team filled with intangibles, and the Blazers are almost too tangible, if you know what I mean. The Rockets in 7 is +400 and in 6 is +350. Both are great bets.

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Dave Weitzel is a professional gambler and excels at everything from Poker to Chinese Checkers and has been betting on both since the third grade.  Dave Weitzel has turned his sights to sports betting and is passing his knowledge onto you via The Odds by The Sports Union.

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